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Mesoscale Discussion 1112
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172045Z - 172145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF DILATION/WEAK
   FRONTOGENESIS  --ON WHICH STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED-- FROM
   HASKELL COUNTY EWD TO WISE COUNTY TX.  MODERATELY STRONG NWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /25-30 KT/ ATOP A MOIST/MODERATELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF A
   MULTICELLULAR MODE AS ISOLD STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY
   THIS AFTERNOON.  MEAN FLOW FROM THE WNW WOULD ACT TO AT LEAST AID IN
   STORM MOVEMENT CLOSER TO THE DFW METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   AN ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN NOTED MOVING SWD AND ARCING FROM
   45 MI W SPS TO 30 MI SW GYI AND MAY ACT TO FOSTER ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AND A FOCUS FOR LIFT.

   STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
   WIND GUST/DAMAGE THREAT GIVEN PW AROUND 1.75 INCH /PER GPS DATA/. 
   ISOLD BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
   BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES.

   ..SMITH/GUYER.. 06/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32399737 32689904 33039990 33249962 33119694 32669680
               32399737 

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