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Mesoscale Discussion 1112 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172045Z - 172145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF DILATION/WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS --ON WHICH STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED-- FROM
HASKELL COUNTY EWD TO WISE COUNTY TX. MODERATELY STRONG NWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW /25-30 KT/ ATOP A MOIST/MODERATELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF A
MULTICELLULAR MODE AS ISOLD STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN FLOW FROM THE WNW WOULD ACT TO AT LEAST AID IN
STORM MOVEMENT CLOSER TO THE DFW METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AN ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN NOTED MOVING SWD AND ARCING FROM
45 MI W SPS TO 30 MI SW GYI AND MAY ACT TO FOSTER ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND A FOCUS FOR LIFT.
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
WIND GUST/DAMAGE THREAT GIVEN PW AROUND 1.75 INCH /PER GPS DATA/.
ISOLD BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.
..SMITH/GUYER.. 06/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
LAT...LON 32399737 32689904 33039990 33249962 33119694 32669680
32399737
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