MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
   COASTAL PLAIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181802Z - 181930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE WITH AN
   EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTH OF THE
   SAVANNAH GA AREA...INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...TOWARD
   THE CHARLESTON SC AREA...DURING THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  WHILE IT IS
   NOT CERTAIN THAT THE THREAT WILL RISE TO A LEVEL THAT WILL
   NECESSITATE A WW...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR A SMALL DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW
   EAST NORTHEAST OF DUBLIN GA IS UNCLEAR.  BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   AHEAD OF IT IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...AND
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING...WITH SIZABLE CAPE ALSO
   DEVELOPING AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
   EVOLVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF MODEST WESTERLY MEAN
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /AROUND 30 KT/ NOW DEVELOPING TO THE
   EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   GENERALLY WEAK...WIND PROFILES ARE ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO REAR
   HIGH-LEVEL SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW...WITH ANVIL LEVEL PRECIPITATION
   LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION. 
   CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A STRENGTHENING SMALL MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ASSOCIATED REAR
   INFLOW JET COULD FORM AND STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT STRONG
   SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2013


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32788235 33428119 33497932 32507922 31988085 31958188
               32238236 32788235