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Mesoscale Discussion 1200 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241630Z - 241700Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF
ISOLD WIND DAMAGE WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH A BOWING LINE SEGMENT
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS CNTRL IA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...KDMX 0.5 DEG VELOCITY DATA SHOWS A WELL-ESTABLISHED
REAR INFLOW JET ALONG AND N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN W-CNTRL IA. THE
AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING AHEAD OF THE ENEWD MOVING BOWING
LINE SEGMENT /STORM MOTION 240 DEG AT 48 KT/ WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S WITHIN A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE SYSTEM MOTION N OF I-80 IS LARGELY ALIGNED WITH THE
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY AID IN
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. LATEST THINKING IS A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT HR WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 42309464 42599318 42449237 41929208 41489242 41239443
42309464
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