MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT WED JUL 03 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN-ERN NM / FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032207Z - 032300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE
   AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR
   STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
   CONSIDERED IN THE SHORT TERM.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER SAN MIGUEL
   COUNTY NM AND HARTLEY AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN TX.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS IN ERN NM IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   A MARGINAL BUOYANCY /500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE/ WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.  KFDX SHOWS A STRONGLY
   SHEARED DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE WITH SLY/S AT THE SURFACE VEERING TO
   A NLY COMPONENT IN THE MID-LEVELS /40 KT AT 6 KM ARL/.  THE QUASI
   STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS/ THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
   AS THE LOSS OF HEATING/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION ENSUES.

   ..SMITH/GOSS.. 07/03/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32530337 32240472 32220715 33520757 34890618 35770470
               35810292 34750266 32530337