MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...NRN VT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171752Z - 171845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE INTO NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
   ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG WHICH STORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF
   LAKE ONTARIO. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE
   LOWER TO MID 70S. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NY WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN NRN
   NY. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED IN THE 35 TO 45 KT
   RANGE FROM LAKE ONTARIO NEWD SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. AS
   CELLS INTENSIFY AND MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE US-CANADIAN BORDER...A
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORM
   COVERAGE MAY EXPAND NEWD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF BURLINGTON. 
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD ENHANCE
   DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IN
   ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 07/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44437293 44897308 45097345 45177490 44877561 44467618
               44187695 43877745 43597743 43177680 43167584 43297460
               43897334 44437293