MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450...

   VALID 292201Z - 292330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
   ACROSS SVR TSTM WATCH 450. A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES
   MAY IMPACT PARTS OF S-CNTRL AND SERN KS.

   DISCUSSION...MIXED-MODE CONVECTION CONTINUES 60-80 MILES EITHER SIDE
   OF A SFC STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE NNW OF
   GARDEN CITY KS ESEWD TO S OF CHANUTE. WHILE THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY LIES S OF THIS FEATURE...AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY EXTENDS SOME DISTANCE N OF THE FRONT WHERE RICH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL HEATING ARE ALSO
   LIMITING MLCINH.

   DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SHORT
   LEWP SEGMENTS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE IN S-CNTRL/SERN KS
   WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. A BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OWING TO THE ENHANCED STREAMWISE
   VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR AND N OF
   THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH AROUND 150-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH PER
   VWP DATA. AREAS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...LOCATIONS
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE KINGMAN COUNTY SUPERCELL...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
   AREAS NEAR AND S OF WICHITA. SIMILARLY...A LEWP SEGMENT OVER
   CHASE/LYON/GREENWOOD/BUTLER COUNTIES...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BOWING
   COMPONENT...COULD MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD COFFEY/WOODSON/WILSON/ELK
   COUNTIES.

   OTHER MORE QUASI-LINEAR-MODE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING SWD INTO SWRN
   KS AND NWRN OK TO THE E OF A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS AND S OF THE FRONT.
   RELATIVELY MORE VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   FOSTER A PRIMARILY DMGG-WIND/LARGE-HAIL THREAT.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/29/2013


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36530013 38710026 38239521 36039521 36530013