MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL THROUGH SERN CO AND WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292218Z - 292345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH ECNTRL
   AND SERN CO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO EXTREME WRN AND SWRN KS THIS
   EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE EVENTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY
   ISOLATED...SO A WW WILL MAY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO
   SUGGEST STORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OR INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE..

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
   SRN KS THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO ECNTRL AND NERN CO. DIABATIC
   WARMING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG
   IN WARM SECTOR OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   HOLDING IN THE LOW 60S. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO
   ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS SPREADING SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   SCNTRL/SERN CO. LOCAL RADAR DATA SHOW THE STORMS OVER SERN CO HAVE
   PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL THAT IS DEVELOPING SEWD. SO FAR ONLY
   A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS REMAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
   HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AS THIS FEATURE
   CONTINUES INTO SERN CO WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE AND SLIGHTLY
   CAPPED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW
   SUPERCELLS...BUT IF ADDITIONAL STORMS CAN INITIATE...MODE COULD
   EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO LINES WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING
   STRUCTURES AND DAMAGING WIND. 

   FARTHER NORTH OVER ECNTRL AND NERN CO...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR STORMS
   TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE SLOWLY WWD MOVING FRONT WHICH MIGHT LESSEN
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THAT AREA.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 07/29/2013


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   39560276 39540214 38660179 37930136 37400151 37150217
               37220318 37590365 38670304 39560276