MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA EWD ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN PARTS OF
   IL AND IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021924Z - 022030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
   WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS
   AND EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN IL...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
   SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
   LOW TO MID 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION MOVING OUT OF THE MID MO VALLEY
   WILL AUGMENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ENCOURAGE FURTHER STORM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE WILL EXIST WITH AN
   ATTENDANT RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME
   HAIL.

   ..MEAD/GOSS.. 08/02/2013


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41359184 42119018 42218749 41768501 40958482 40128570
               39908821 40149046 40729186 41359184