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Mesoscale Discussion 1660 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...FAR NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072213Z - 072345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN
WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...AND FAR NERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 22Z SHOWS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CNTRL WY...WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND A
THETA-E AXIS /WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE COLLOCATED WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM 50-60F/ LOCATED ESEWD FROM THE LOW INTO ERN WY AND
THE NEB PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES WERE
OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY...ONE MOVING NWD OVER ERN CO...AND A SECOND
MOVING EWD OVER NRN WY. COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...AND PERHAPS MODEST UPPER
SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSES WILL AID IN AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...LOW-LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN
AND AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND
WRN NEB. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.
..GARNER/GOSS.. 08/07/2013
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 40850269 40830410 41180509 43200649 44520647 44720443
43340157 41500143 40850269
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