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Mesoscale Discussion 1660
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...FAR NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072213Z - 072345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN
   WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...AND FAR NERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 22Z SHOWS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CNTRL WY...WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND A
   THETA-E AXIS /WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE COLLOCATED WITH
   DEWPOINTS FROM 50-60F/ LOCATED ESEWD FROM THE LOW INTO ERN WY AND
   THE NEB PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES WERE
   OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY...ONE MOVING NWD OVER ERN CO...AND A SECOND
   MOVING EWD OVER NRN WY. COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...AND PERHAPS MODEST UPPER
   SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSES WILL AID IN AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
   SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...LOW-LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN
   AND AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND
   WRN NEB. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.

   ..GARNER/GOSS.. 08/07/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   40850269 40830410 41180509 43200649 44520647 44720443
               43340157 41500143 40850269 

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