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Mesoscale Discussion 1678
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 09 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SERN NY/CT/MA/NRN RI/FAR SRN NH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091725Z - 091930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
   WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS...A FEW POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WHILE A NONZERO THREAT EXISTS FOR A
   FUNNEL/BRIEF...WEAK TORNADO.  GIVEN THE LOW SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT...A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT WARRANTED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SINCE 16Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER SERN NY INTO
   WRN/NRN CT AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MA HAVE INDICATED RELATIVELY BROAD
   LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION COUPLETS WITH A BAND OF TSTMS EMBEDDED IN A
   LARGER CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
   MOVING ACROSS SERN NY/CT ATTM AND FURTHER AIDED BY LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES STATES.  ALTHOUGH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE
   RATES WILL LIMIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TODAY...STRONG EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION AS INDICATED BY
   THE ONGOING UPDRAFT ROTATION.  VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES PER
   AREA WSR-88D VADS AT OKX/BOX SHOWED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE/LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT.  THE WEAK
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITIES...THOUGH
   AFOREMENTIONED KINEMATICS AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PW AROUND 2
   INCH/ SUGGEST WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A BRIEF/WEAK
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..PETERS/WEISS.. 08/09/2013


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41607415 42157315 42717241 42777122 42417122 42047124
               41747144 41647184 41547229 41457285 41387345 41407400
               41607415 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2013
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