MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNRL AND ERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

   VALID 310006Z - 310130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   WITH THE THREAT MOVING ACROSS CNTRL ND. A BRIEF TORNADO...WIND
   DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A SMALL
   WEATHER WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN ND BUT A
   LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION COULD ALSO COVER THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ONGOING
   JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BISMARK ND...IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF
   A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM A MESO LOW IN FAR NW SD. THE
   ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE ERN EDGE OF CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...THE BISMARK WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
   SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 2 KM WHICH COMBINED
   WITH 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME DOMINATE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES F SHOULD ALSO BE
   FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
   THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/31/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48959880 48920073 47800151 46670145 46100090 46029880
               46209709 47059680 47999704 48829793 48959880