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Mesoscale Discussion 1840 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT THU SEP 05 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN WA TO
WESTERN ID/NORTHEAST NV
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511...
VALID 052301Z - 060030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 511 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE AND SOUTHERN WA INTO WESTERN ID/NORTHEAST
NV...WITH BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID.
DISCUSSION...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DERIVED WIND DATA...GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE
REGION AMID DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER COASTAL ORE. NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING DPVA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A PERSISTENT/NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST
THAT THE MOST SEVERE TSTM FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ORE/SOUTHEAST WA INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
ID. THIS IS WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED...AND WSR-88D
VWP DATA FROM BOISE AND SPOKANE SAMPLE 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE MLCAPE IS LIKELY NEAR OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG...ESPECIALLY WHERE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 F.
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL /AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BRIEF TORNADO/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ORE/FAR SOUTHERN WA AND FAR WESTERN ID...WHILE FAST-MOVING
CLUSTERS/SMALL SCALE BOWS ARE OTHERWISE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NORTH OF SEVERE TSTM
WATCH 511 ACROSS WA/ID...SUCH THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
THIS EVENING.
..GUYER.. 09/05/2013
ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR...
LAT...LON 44332150 46832092 46681747 45951513 41081492 42871772
43482101 44332150
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