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Mesoscale Discussion 1844 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT THU SEP 05 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL ORE/EASTERN WA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN
ID TO WESTERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511...513...
VALID 060213Z - 060415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
511...513...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND/HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN
WA ALONG WITH NORTHERN ID AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MT. RECENTLY
ISSUED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 513 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z...WHILE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH 511 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT/BY 03Z.
DISCUSSION...AGGREGATING OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS ASIDE...FOCUSED ASCENT
WITH DPVA AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INSTRUMENTAL IN THE
SUSTENANCE OF MULTIPLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WA AND NORTH-CENTRAL ID/SOUTHWEST MT AS OF 02Z.
MAINLY ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 513...BOUTS OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WINDS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS SUCH SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WA...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MT THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO COOL IN MOST
AREAS...RESIDUAL WARMTH/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ASIDE FROM ISOLATED
BOUTS OF HAIL. OWING TO NORTHEAST-SHIFTING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/OUTFLOWS...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A
CONTINUED WANE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITHIN SEVERE TSTM WATCH
511...SUCH THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT/BY 03Z.
..GUYER.. 09/06/2013
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...
LAT...LON 46482156 48162090 48741817 48111411 46811163 46011109
45701207 45701467 44341583 45541987 46482156
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