MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UTAH AND ARIZONA INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND NEW
   MEXICO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532...533...

   VALID 222008Z - 222145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   532...533...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES
   ACROSS THE WW AREAS.  DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE BY
   22-23Z...AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WHICH COULD REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH  ACROSS PARTS OF COLORADO TO THE EAST OF WW 532.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS...DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
   THE REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
   MEAN FLOW...WITH STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  STRONGEST
   CELLS ARE ROOTED IN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LAYER...WHICH WILL
   CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON
   ...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
   INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

   A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER...NOW NEAR MILFORD UT...APPEARS TO BE
   DEVELOPING WITHIN THE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH AN
   AREA OF 60-90 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
   THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 23/00Z.

   WDSS MESH DATA HAS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN THE
   STRONGER CELLS...WHICH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
   MAY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SQUALL LINE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ACCOMPANIED
   BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES THE
   CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

   ..KERR.. 09/22/2013


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...

   LAT...LON   39071124 40321032 40160615 37800576 35300669 33880822
               33580957 34701096 37761082 39071124