MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX NEWD INTO SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051745Z - 052015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
   AFTERNOON. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ATOP A SFC
   COLD DOME THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX
   AND AR. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF ASCENT PRECEDING A
   NE/SW-SHEARED IMPULSE ENTERING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX PER RECENT
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO SERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY
   IS ROOTED ALONG/ABOVE THE NWWD-SLOPING FRONTAL SFC -- I.E. ABOVE THE
   850-MB LEVEL PER 12Z RAOBS FROM OUN AND FWD. MODESTLY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. AND...WITH
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW GLANCING THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   IMPULSE...30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF A FEW SUSTAINED AND STRONG ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...A
   RELATIVE WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 500-MB WILL REDUCE THE MAGNITUDE
   OF MUCAPE AMIDST ONLY MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TO REDUCE THE
   OVERALL CONVECTIVE VIGOR. FURTHERMORE...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL
   PLACATE THE OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 10/05/2013


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32050037 34219725 34899599 34709539 33809588 32509726
               31069958 31040081 32050037