MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF
   TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182251Z - 190015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST OR
   TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF
   TX. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...TO THE EAST OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE...TSTMS
   HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...PRINCIPALLY IN EDWARDS COUNTY AS OF 2230Z WITH AT LEAST
   ONE OF THESE STORMS BRIEFLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLUAR CHARACTERISTICS.
   ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT/BROKEN STRATUS MAY BE A HINDRANCE...SOME
   ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION/POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MAY EXIST AS THESE
   STORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS IMMEDIATELY
   PRECEDING THE STORMS.

   FARTHER NORTH...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER
   TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT SUCH AS CURRENTLY
   OCCURRING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIDLAND NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
   ABILENE VICINITY. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
   WESTERLIES...VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /UP TO
   750-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME SHORT DURATION
   SUPERCELLS OR MORE PREVALENT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL/PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE
   UNDERCUT /FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST/ BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 10/18/2013


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29220038 29930135 30210163 30920189 31760153 32459928
               31219898 29959897 29220038