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Mesoscale Discussion 1980
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MD 1980 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/KS...NRN MO...SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301145Z - 301345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY AN INCREASING COVERAGE
   OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
   NOSE OF A SWLY 850 MB LLJ...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
   LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING IN CNTRL KS.
   THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ELEVATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING
   NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT FROM FAR NW OK TO ICT TOWARDS A WEAK
   CYCLONE INVOF STJ. WITHIN AN EML PLUME AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY A 06Z LAMONT OK RAOB...WEAK TO MODERATE
   BUOYANCY EXISTS FOR SEVERE HAIL IN SEMI-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH 
   THE MO VALLEY CONVECTION GENERALLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE PLUME OF
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
   HAIL MAY EMANATE OUT OF THE CNTRL KS CONVECTION. BUT AN OVERALL
   CLUSTERED STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE TO BELOW SIGNIFICANT
   THRESHOLDS.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 10/30/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   41879675 41539481 40659307 40009245 39549228 39039263
               39009336 39149461 38459607 38169696 38169784 38359814
               39629748 40529732 41259756 41579755 41879675 

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Page last modified: October 30, 2013
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