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Mesoscale Discussion 1981
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MD 1981 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SRN IA...NCNTRL MO...NE KS...WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301429Z - 301600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS
   SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
   MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SW IA WITH A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO WRN IL WITH A COLD FRONT
   LOCATED ACROSS FAR NW MO INTO NE KS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT VERY NEAR THE AXIS OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH 50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED. THIS
   FACTOR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE THE MAIN
   THREAT LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOME EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...THE STORMS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER MAY BECOME
   SFC-BASED SOMEWHAT ALLOWING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO INCREASE. FOR
   THIS REASON...THE STORMS IN NE KS AND SE NEB ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
   EWD ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE
   THREAT CONTINUING.

   FURTHER TO THE EAST...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONGOING
   JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY IS WEAKER EWD NEAR THE MS RIVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THERE.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38859269 38699130 39229071 39979062 40599154 41379307
               41659511 41479571 40919630 39689645 39079590 39019522
               38859269 

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Page last modified: October 30, 2013
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