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Mesoscale Discussion 1982
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL AND NRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301745Z - 301915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE TX
   NNWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
   NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN INTENSIFY AND BECOME
   ORGANIZED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING WWD FROM THE HOUSTON AREA INTO THE TX HILL
   COUNTRY AND NWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST
   WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S F IN SE TX TO THE UPPER
   60S F ACROSS NCNTRL TX. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS
   IN THE CLOUD COVER ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH HAS ENABLED SFC TEMPS
   TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS HAS HELPED ENHANCE
   INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
   RANGE. CONTINUED SFC HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF
   SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS THE MCD AREA DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AS IS
   SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND ECMWF. ALSO...SFC WINDS ARE
   BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA. THIS IS HELPING
   TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45
   TO 50 KT RANGE....SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CELL ROTATION AND POSSIBLY AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO RESULT IN
   A POTENTIAL FOR WET DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33519767 33269695 32539677 31799667 31439651 30969554
               30459509 29849516 29569558 29569691 29819795 30569858
               31599890 32679898 33339849 33519767 

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Page last modified: October 30, 2013
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