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Mesoscale Discussion 1983
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN/ERN KS...WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301821Z - 301945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN OK NEWD INTO NERN KS...WITH
   ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN MO LATER TODAY. SOME OF
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SEVERE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS SWWD TO
   ANOTHER WEAK LOW OVER THE NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK. NARROW ZONE OF
   CLEARING SKIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS AIDED IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES
   INTO THE 70S...WHICH ARE COLLOCATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
   LOCALLY UPPER 60S F. ZONE OF ENHANCED HEATING COMBINED WITH THE
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500 J/KG
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING OVER SERN CO...WITH
   ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM.
   MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
   HARPER/BARBER/KINGMAN COUNTIES IN SRN KS AS OF 18Z...AND COVERAGE IS
   FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   FRONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER FEATURES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
   MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND 40+ KT OF SWLY FLOW IN THE
   MIDLEVELS...A BROKEN LINE OF MULTICELL/EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   WILL BE FAVORED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN
   ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

   ..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36059973 36739980 37549831 38479697 39389561 38959371
               36829584 35879842 36059973 

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Page last modified: October 30, 2013
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