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Mesoscale Discussion 1984
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...CNTRL MO...SE IA AND WRN IL AND CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301826Z - 302000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MO AND SE IA WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY
   EXPANDING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL IL THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS AND WW
   ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
   INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING
   ACROSS SERN NEB WITH A DISTINCT VORTICITY MAX LOCATED TO THE RIGHT
   OF THE MID-LEVEL JET SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES IA. THIS FEATURE ALONG
   WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT FROM THE ERN PART OF WW 549
   EWD INTO WCNTRL IL THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG
   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KT ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
   SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
   DUE TO THE COOL SFC AIR AND FOR THIS REASON...THE GREATEST SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD BE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. CELLS THAT CAN ORGANIZE
   INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SFC INVERSION
   RESULTING IN A ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38658948 38449256 38929365 39609405 40889326 41249141
               41309004 40798903 39768855 39058870 38658948 

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Page last modified: October 30, 2013
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