MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL...COASTAL SERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 150056Z - 150200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
   FL AND COASTAL SERN GA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL
   AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ACROSS FL THAN AREAS TO
   THE N...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF
   SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING SSWWD FROM GA INTO NRN FL...WITH SOME
   WEAKENING/DISORGANIZATION NOTED WITHIN THE FL SEGMENT OVER THE PAST
   HR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...WITH A CLUSTER MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CITRUS/HERNANDO
   COUNTIES FL. BRIEF/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
   WITH DISCRETE/STRONGER STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AS WELL. 

   BOTH AREA SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA CONFIRM LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH
   SWD EXTENT. WHERE SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE /I.E. ACROSS
   GA/...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY LIMIT TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...WHILE BOTH BASE VELOCITY RADAR DATA AND SFC OBS SUGGEST
   THE DMGG WIND THREAT IS LOW ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY
   APPROACHING THE COAST WITH ANY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE
   SPATIALLY/TEMPORALLY LIMITED.

   FARTHER S ACROSS FL...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
   INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN TSTMS
   WITH EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...DESPITE
   THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED BY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW /E.G. ESTIMATED 20-30 KT IN THE 0-3
   KM AGL LAYER/...BUT A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY EXIST WITHIN LINE
   SEGMENTS. WINDS MAY ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THIS LAYER LATER THIS EVENING
   AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST/QUASI-DISCRETE
   STORMS.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 12/15/2013


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31738106 30758139 29678124 28998163 28708224 28678262
               28988270 29128281 29218305 29608316 30808213 31298185
               31738152 31738106