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Mesoscale Discussion 2
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CST FRI JAN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEW ENGLAND COAST

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

   VALID 030839Z - 031245Z

   SUMMARY...PEAK INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOW IS OCCURRING
   NOW...WITH GRADUAL W-E DECREASE EXPECTED ALONG SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
   NEAR AND AFTER 11Z.  SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
   EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MA/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE NW
   EDGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND WILL BE ENHANCED LOCALLY BY OCEAN EFFECTS.

   DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL
   TO THE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESS ENEWD
   FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST.  AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR IN THE
   LOWER TROPOSPHERE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND IS HELPING PRODUCE HIGH
   SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF NEAR 20:1 WHICH IS ENHANCING SNOWFALL
   ACCUMULATION RATES.  ADDITIONALLY...THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
   RESULTING IN A PRONOUNCED OCEAN-EFFECT ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES
   ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST...SPECIFICALLY ERN MA/CAPE AND
   NANTUCKET WHERE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN INFLUENCE EXTENDS UPWARD
   INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE PRIMARY LOW-MIDLEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL ALSO BRUSH THE SAME AREAS AS THE CYCLONE
   INTENSIFIES...THOUGH THE DURATION OF THIS LARGER-SCALE ENHANCEMENT
   TO SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE REASONABLY QUICK ENEWD
   PROGRESSION OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.  OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE
   SYNOPTIC WAVE WILL BEGIN TO RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
   SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 11Z...WITH THE DECREASE OCCURRING SOONER
   ACROSS NJ AND THE NYC AREA.

   ..THOMPSON.. 01/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   40617351 40517386 40717404 41017385 41337344 41777204
               42227076 42247041 42046998 41736987 41247125 40847248
               40837252 40617351 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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