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Mesoscale Discussion 3
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 050916Z - 051515Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO
   NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN MISSOURI THROUGH DAYBREAK.
   SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS
   MORNING WITH THESE RATES SPREADING TO PARTS OF SWRN IL BY 15 UTC/10
   AM CST.

   DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-120M/12H WILL OCCUR WITH
   TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF A FRONTAL WAVE/SFC LOW OVER
   AR. A MODEST INFLUX OF HIGHER PW AIR /0.75-0.90 INCHES/ NEAR AND
   EAST OF THE SFC LOW TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
   AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY OVER SRN/CNTRL MO THROUGH THE MORNING.
   AS SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN THIS FRONTAL ZONE INTENSIFIES...DENDRITIC
   GROWTH LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY
   SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC HABITAT FOR SNOWFALL PRODUCTION. THIS
   PROCESS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SW-TO-NE ORIENTED BANDS
   OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.

   SYNOPTIC AND HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
   NARROW RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SERN MO THROUGH
   THE MORNING. MAX HRLY QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE TRANSITION ZONE ARE
   AROUND 0.10 INCH WHERE NAM SNOW/LIQUID RATIO IS FORECAST TO BE
   AROUND 10/1. THUS...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIER BANDS TO
   REACH ABOUT AN INCH PER HOUR. THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY
   THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
   EWD/NEWD EXTENT...AS MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT INTENSIFIES AND
   SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO SWRN IL.

   ..CARBIN.. 01/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38309010 37709112 37199289 37159372 37829365 38529260
               39369070 38899005 38309010 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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