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Mesoscale Discussion 8
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CST MON JAN 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 070532Z - 070930Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 2 IN/HR ARE PROBABLE AS POSITION OF
   LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO STABILIZES DURING
   THE NIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0520Z SHOW A LAKE EFFECT
   SNOWBAND DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE NIGHT
   PROGRESSES...AND THEN GIVES WAY TO MORNING...SHORT-TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STABILIZE AND
   SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND THAT WILL RE-ORIENTATE W-E
   ALONG THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES IN THE LEE OF LAKE
   ONTARIO...PARTICULARLY JEFFERSON...WILL THEN EXPERIENCE A PERSISTENT
   PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES AOA 2 IN/HR...GIVEN COLD POCKET OF SUB -30C
   AIR AT 700 MB SPREADING ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS.

   ..GARNER.. 01/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44027645 44287624 44347588 44137541 43747543 43517578
               43517621 43747648 44027645 

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