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Mesoscale Discussion 12
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN OK SWD TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102125Z - 102230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION INITIATES NEAR A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
   INTERSECTION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS RATHER
   LIMITED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FESTERING LINE OF
   LOW-TOPPED CU DEVELOPING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A COLD FRONT AND
   DRYLINE ACROSS S-CNTRL OK...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE
   SEWD. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED /E.G. 400-700 J/KG MLCAPE/
   WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S F
   AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...PRIMARILY AFTER 22Z.
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
   WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...WITH EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE
   SMALL LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...BUT HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF NEAR 7 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 01/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34799547 33829581 33569621 33549686 33799730 34409728
               34759704 35479647 35459571 34799547 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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