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Mesoscale Discussion 16 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO WRN
AND CENTRAL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 111303Z - 111330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK HAS INCREASED -- SUCH
THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF E
CENTRAL AL INTO WRN AND CENTRAL GA.
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE/ORGANIZE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT -- WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN A QLCS
EXTENDING FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO CENTRAL AL.
WHILE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ONLY MODESTLY
UNSTABLE /MIXED-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY
ORGANIZED -- WITHIN A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. WITH
BOWING/LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURES EVIDENT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTION
OF THE LINE...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT /NOW OVER NRN GA/ AND 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
SUGGESTS RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND CORRESPONDING SEVERE/TORNADO RISK...A
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
..GOSS/MEAD.. 01/11/2014
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 34068447 33758365 32968302 30578442 30388516 30868757
32198648 34068447
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