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Mesoscale Discussion 18
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111612Z - 111715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM
   FROM ONGOING QLCS MOVING ACROSS WRN NC/SC. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
   CONSIDERED BY 17Z.

   DISCUSSION...WEDGE FRONT HAS RETREATED NWD ACROSS MOST OF THE
   CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOWER
   60S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE S OF THE FRONT. MODEST WARM SECTOR
   DESTABILIZATION VIA LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SFC HEATING
   SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION INTO MID-DAY.
   UPSTREAM QLCS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY
   BE MAINTAINED INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NC/SC...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
   THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WINDS POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW-/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES...WITH
   EMBEDDED LINE CIRCULATIONS OR WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS/CLUSTERS
   THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED BY
   17Z WITH AFFECTED FORECAST OFFICES.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36337761 35917773 34897872 33828009 33378082 33418148
               33758155 35548028 36038001 36427943 36537851 36507798
               36337761 

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