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Mesoscale Discussion 22
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

   VALID 111904Z - 112000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST RELATIVE DMGG WIND/TOR THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   MAXIMIZED CNTRL NC...ACCOMPANYING AN INTENSE/WELL-ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR RALEIGH AS OF 19Z. THIS LINE APPEARS LESS
   COHESIVE WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS ARE STILL BEING
   OCCASIONALLY OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A WIND/TOR THREAT AS
   WELL.

   A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON FOR REMAINING
   PORTIONS OF ERN NC/NERN SC TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.

   DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF A SEMI-CONTINUOUS QLCS IS
   CENTERED NEAR RDU AS OF 1845Z. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH A WEAK
   MESOLOW ANALYZED FROM RECENT SFC OBS...WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
   SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS. A BAND OF TSTMS ALSO CONTINUES TO
   INTENSIFY E OF THIS LINE...AND TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD
   EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH PRIMARY QLCS OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO.
   VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREA VWP
   DATA...AND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
   ACCOMPANYING TRANSIENT LINE/PRE-LINE CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...DMGG
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN LINEAR CONVECTIVE
   MODE. 

   FARTHER S...CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
   HRS ACROSS INTO CNTRL SC. MORE INTENSE/WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
   APPARENT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW /NEAR AND S OF CAE/...AND
   SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SHORT-TERM DOWNSTREAM SVR
   THREAT.

   A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON FOR ERN NC/NERN
   SC AS THE THREAT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   35947735 35867712 35657580 35147580 34897627 34097786
               33317930 33498005 33318059 33198118 33008195 33318215
               34238115 34947982 35867938 36437869 36427769 35947735 

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