ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 111904 SPC MCD 111904 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-112000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4... VALID 111904Z - 112000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...GREATEST RELATIVE DMGG WIND/TOR THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED CNTRL NC...ACCOMPANYING AN INTENSE/WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR RALEIGH AS OF 19Z. THIS LINE APPEARS LESS COHESIVE WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS ARE STILL BEING OCCASIONALLY OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A WIND/TOR THREAT AS WELL. A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON FOR REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN NC/NERN SC TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF A SEMI-CONTINUOUS QLCS IS CENTERED NEAR RDU AS OF 1845Z. THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH A WEAK MESOLOW ANALYZED FROM RECENT SFC OBS...WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS. A BAND OF TSTMS ALSO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY E OF THIS LINE...AND TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH PRIMARY QLCS OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREA VWP DATA...AND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ACCOMPANYING TRANSIENT LINE/PRE-LINE CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...DMGG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. FARTHER S...CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ACROSS INTO CNTRL SC. MORE INTENSE/WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS APPARENT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW /NEAR AND S OF CAE/...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SHORT-TERM DOWNSTREAM SVR THREAT. A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON FOR ERN NC/NERN SC AS THE THREAT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD. ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 01/11/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 35947735 35867712 35657580 35147580 34897627 34097786 33317930 33498005 33318059 33198118 33008195 33318215 34238115 34947982 35867938 36437869 36427769 35947735 NNNN