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Mesoscale Discussion 23
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111910Z - 112015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE VA TIDEWATER AND SRN TIP OF DELMARVA PENINSULA.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
   THE VA TIDEWATER AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
   PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH RESULTING IN
   STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN
   NC AND ERN VA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS AS MOIST AIRMASS HAS SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THESE AREAS
   FROM OFF OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL THE
   CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS EAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
   FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE STRONG WITH LATEST AKQ VWP
   INDICATED NEAR 60KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LEWP
   STRUCTURE MOVING INTO NERN NC TOWARD VA BORDER ATTM SUGGEST THAT
   LONG-LIVED ROTATING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
   ADVANCING QLCS. THUS...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.

   ..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37807736 38387660 38427512 36557576 36577838 37807736 

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