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Mesoscale Discussion 30
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...WRN INTO NRN VA...WRN MD...S CNTRL PA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 211004Z - 211600Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS...WITH 1"/HR RATES LIKELY OVER ERN WV/WRN VA...WITH
   SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 2"/HR BY LATE MORNING. AN EVOLVING HEAVY
   SNOW BAND WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEGINNING OVER SRN
   PA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NJ...SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.

   DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH MIDLEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE APPALACHIANS
   BY 18Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER WRN NC...WITH
   CYCLONE TILTED NWWD WITH HEIGHT /850 MB LOW OVER WRN VA/. AS THIS
   LOW DEEPENS...AN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR WILL BECOME FAVORABLY
   ORIENTED IN REGARD TO TOPOGRAPHY TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION
   FIELDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY
   PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHIELD...WITH LOCALIZED 2"/HR
   RATES. 

   RADAR TRENDS AS OF 10Z SHOW SOME BANDING ACROSS SRN PA...ALIGNED
   WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY AND
   EXPAND EWD LATER TODAY WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES FROM MD/ERN PA INTO
   NEW JERSEY AND SRN NEW YORK WHERE DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL
   BOTH INTENSIFY AND BE ALIGNED WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORABLE
   FOR MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH.

   ..JEWELL.. 01/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39467725 38997778 38097882 37797944 37398083 37458109
               38088114 39288042 39957980 40197879 40157825 40137798
               39977750 39807722 39467725 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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