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Mesoscale Discussion 31
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/ERN MD/SERN PA/DE/NJ/SERN NY/CT

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 211603Z - 212200Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ARE FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE/EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO SRN
   NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN THE SWRN
   VA/NWRN NC/NERN TN VICINITY...WITH HINTS OF SECONDARY LOW
   DEVELOPMENT NERN THE NERN NC/SERN VA COAST.  WITH TIME...THIS
   DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
   CYCLONE...DEEPENING WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE.  THE
   CYCLOGENESIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
   DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. 
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
   BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO
   SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNSET...WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED
   TO BECOME WELL-DEFINED N/NW OF THE OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS.

   LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NOW OCCURRING FROM THE
   ERN HALF OF MD AND ADJACENT NRN VA NEWD TO SRN NJ...WITH AN INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE LAST HOUR. 
   EXPECT A CONTINUED EXPANSION -- AND VERY SLOW ENEWD SHIFT -- OF THE
   ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF FOCUSED
   ASCENT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  

   WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND UVV OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOST
   FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
   LIKELY TO RESIDE ON THE HIGHER END /AVERAGING IN THE 15-1
   RANGE/...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 01/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   41097485 41697232 41287204 40617213 39847374 38987536
               38897543 38337700 38157787 38357850 39007854 39607825
               40187720 41097485 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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