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Mesoscale Discussion 33
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA PENINSULA...SERN VA...NERN NC

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 220009Z - 220515Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
   DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SERN VA AND NC THROUGH
   THE LATE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO PRIMARILY
   SNOW ACROSS NERN NC BY 01-02Z. RATES OF 1 INCH PER HR COULD BECOME
   COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SNOWFALL PRIMARILY
   ALONG/E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR ACROSS SERN VA...WITH A MORE
   SIGNIFICANT BAND RECENTLY INTENSIFYING FROM N OF RIC S-SWWD TO NEAR
   AVC...WHILE PRIMARILY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FARTHER S INTO NC.
   MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED NE OF ILM AT 00Z...AND IS
   FORECAST TO PROGRESS NEWD WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
   COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NW OF THE SFC
   CYCLONE...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
   VORT MAX...WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY COOLING SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS
   SRN VA AND NRN NC. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH INCREASING
   MIDLEVEL DCVA...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES.

   THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL OCCUR WITHIN SNOWFALL BANDS ACROSS THE
   COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NC INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH RATES NEAR
   1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A LAYER OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
   CONVECTION...AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES. THE RELATIVE PROGRESSIVE
   NATURE OF THE VORT MAX SHOULD NOT YIELD A PARTICULARLY LONG-DURATION
   EVENT ACROSS NC/SERN VA...WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
   HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

   ..ROGERS.. 01/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   37797539 37567552 36857592 36477578 36137575 35767631
               35427736 35387810 35657872 35967887 37597759 38087698
               37967595 37797539 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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