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Mesoscale Discussion 40
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NC...SE VA...SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 290048Z - 290445Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NWD ACROSS FAR NE NC AND SE
   VA/SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHIN THIS
   LARGER EXPANSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
   SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
   SNOWFALL IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
   NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. KORF RECENTLY REPORTED MODERATE
   SNOW.

   00Z MHX SOUNDING SAMPLED 35 KT SELY WINDS JUST BELOW 850 MB WITH A
   SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 500 MB. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MOST
   GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER
   FROM CNTRL NC NEWD TO OFF THE VA COAST. THIS MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT
   OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LIFT THROUGHOUT A
   DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /NOTED ON THE 00Z WAL
   SOUNDING/. AS A RESULT...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
   EXPECTED FROM FAR NE NC NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA.
   GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP AND
   SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH
   PER HOUR.

   ..MOSIER.. 01/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35847684 36017769 36687792 37227752 37487722 37827684
               38117647 38187594 38037535 37417560 36407609 35847684 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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