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Mesoscale Discussion 45
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0930 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL WI INTO THE WRN MI UPPER PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 301530Z - 301830Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1+ INCHES PER HOUR MAY
   DEVELOP...PRIMARILY IN A BAND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
   WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THROUGH 17-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST NAM AND RAPID REFRESH CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
   THAT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING
   ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  BUT IT APPEARS THAT LINGERING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COULD
   STILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE SNOW RATES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER
   THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...AIDED BY RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO
   LIQUID WATER RATIOS...IN THE PRESENCE OF COLD SATURATED
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR IN A BAND
   ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF
   MICHIGAN...ALONG TRACK OF STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   ADVECTION...ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH A MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS
   /WITH VALUES OF .3 TO .5 INCHES/.

   ..KERR.. 01/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45579211 46209014 46258881 45898839 45318836 44968951
               44679114 45009205 45579211 

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