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Mesoscale Discussion 47
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS TO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 010534Z - 011030Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY AS
   SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   COMMON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO INCLUDING THE I-70
   CORRIDOR. AT LEAST LOCALIZED LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
   EXCEEDING 0.05 IN/HR ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...MODERATE SNOW WILL BE
   COMMON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA/FAR
   WESTERN IL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...AS STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC/SPLIT UPPER FLOW EXISTS
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/PLAINS...LATE-EVENING ANALYZED
   QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS GENERALLY
   SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX/EASTERN OK TO ROUGHLY
   ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF MO. COINCIDENT WITH THE COLDER AIR NORTH
   OF THIS BOUNDARY...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A GRADUALLY EXPANDING
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARE READILY EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE/RADAR
   IMAGERY RESPECTIVELY AS OF 05Z. 

   FOCUSED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...INCREASING WARM
   ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASING
   WINTER-MIXED PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT FROM
   EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO. EMBEDDED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL FURTHER AUGMENT PRECIPITATION RATES. THIS
   IS EVIDENCED BY EPISODIC CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS
   SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE
   INDICATIONS OF VERY WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR.

   WHILE SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR INITIALLY...FREEZING RAIN
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO THROUGH 09Z-12Z. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ROUGHLY 50
   MILES EITHER SIDE /NORTH AND SOUTH/ OF I-70. HERE...NEAR-SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WHILE STRONG WARM
   ADVECTION WILL ACCOUNT FOR A 1500-2000 M DEEP FULL-MELTING LAYER
   BASED AROUND/ABOVE 900 MB AS SATURATION OTHERWISE QUICKLY OCCURS.

   ..GUYER.. 02/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39719249 39739158 39249095 38699126 38059348 37479621
               38079641 38859572 39069407 39719249 

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