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Mesoscale Discussion 48
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CST SAT FEB 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL/NE MO...AND W CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NE IL

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 010846Z - 011345Z

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
   FROM CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL IL BY 12-14Z...WHERE COLD GROUND AND
   PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES PER HOUR WILL FAVOR RAPID
   ACCUMULATIONS.  N OF THIS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
   DEVELOP INTO NE IL THROUGH 14Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA...ON THE NOSE OF A 50-55 KT SWLY
   LLJ...IS DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION
   FROM E CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL MO.  WARMING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE WAA REGIME WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE
   DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL
   IL...AFFECTING AREAS FROM COLUMBIA MO TO NEAR/N OF SAINT LOUIS AND
   SPRINGFIELD IL BY 12Z AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ENEWD THROUGH THE
   MORNING.  AN INFLUX OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ARKLATEX
   AND WEAK MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
   WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES.  DESPITE A TENDENCY FOR
   GRADUALLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
   CENTRAL IL...RESIDUAL COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVER FROM
   CENTRAL IL NEWD WILL FAVOR RAPID ACCUMULATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN
   AND SLEET.

   N OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BAND...A BELT OF MODERATELY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM NE MO...POTENTIALLY
   REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AS EARLY AS 10-11Z.  FOCUSED
   ASCENT...A QUICKLY SATURATING COLUMN...AND A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER
   FROM THE SURFACE-700 MB WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL RATES
   OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.

   ..THOMPSON.. 02/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39838831 39378917 38909030 38679124 38539210 38619278
               38879309 39379300 39659265 40199095 40568896 40868776
               40538760 40298771 39838831 

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