ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010846 
SPC MCD 010846 
ILZ000-MOZ000-011345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST SAT FEB 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL/NE MO...AND W CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NE IL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 010846Z - 011345Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
FROM CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL IL BY 12-14Z...WHERE COLD GROUND AND
PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES PER HOUR WILL FAVOR RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS.  N OF THIS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
DEVELOP INTO NE IL THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA...ON THE NOSE OF A 50-55 KT SWLY
LLJ...IS DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION
FROM E CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL MO.  WARMING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE WAA REGIME WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL
IL...AFFECTING AREAS FROM COLUMBIA MO TO NEAR/N OF SAINT LOUIS AND
SPRINGFIELD IL BY 12Z AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ENEWD THROUGH THE
MORNING.  AN INFLUX OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND WEAK MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES.  DESPITE A TENDENCY FOR
GRADUALLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL IL...RESIDUAL COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVER FROM
CENTRAL IL NEWD WILL FAVOR RAPID ACCUMULATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET.

N OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BAND...A BELT OF MODERATELY HEAVY
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM NE MO...POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AS EARLY AS 10-11Z.  FOCUSED
ASCENT...A QUICKLY SATURATING COLUMN...AND A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE-700 MB WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.

..THOMPSON.. 02/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39838831 39378917 38909030 38679124 38539210 38619278
            38879309 39379300 39659265 40199095 40568896 40868776
            40538760 40298771 39838831 

NNNN