ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020539 
SPC MCD 020539 
TXZ000-NMZ000-020945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 020539Z - 020945Z

SUMMARY...A WINTRY MIX WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIP RATES SHOULD
EXCEED .05 IN PER HOUR BY 3 AM.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING...PER RAPID THICKENING OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN LATEST IR IMAGERY FROM SERN NM/FAR WEST TX INTO THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS.  AIR MASS WAS QUITE DRY AT MAF AT 00Z AND INITIAL
PRECIPITATION IS SERVING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP RATES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LATEST DATA SUGGEST A
CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS NELY UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS.

WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MAF CWA IT
APPEARS READINGS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES BY 09Z.  FARTHER NORTH ACROSS LBB CWA...ICE PELLETS WILL BE
COMMON WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES.  GIVEN THE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
ATTAIN SUFFICIENT HEIGHTS FOR LIGHTNING ALONG SERN PORTIONS OF MD
AREA FROM MAF INTO SERN PARTS OF LBB CWA.  CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
DEEPENED ACROSS DAWSON/BORDEN COUNTIES WHERE LIGHTNING IS NOW
OBSERVED.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED 0.10 IN PER HOUR
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION/TSTMS.

WITH TIME A BAND OF HEAVY ICE PELLETS/SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO SWRN
OK...MOST LIKELY AFTER 09Z.

..DARROW.. 02/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33360334 33980217 34140113 34010016 33130010 32780087
            32230219 32320302 32690339 33360334 

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