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Mesoscale Discussion 52
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...OK

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 020948Z - 021345Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NW TX
   AND DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS SW AND CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
   A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS NEWD INTO SCNTRL OK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD RANGE FROM
   0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM WEST TX NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SRN PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION BANDS IN NORTHWEST TX ARE CURRENTLY
   LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A BOUNDARY AT 850 MB...AHEAD OF A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL JET
   LOCATED ACROSS NRN OK AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER WEST TX CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS...THE
   HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NORTH TX AND
   SCNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOWFALL WITH
   RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...SHOULD BE LOCATED IN A 50 STATUTE
   MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM CHILDRESS TX ENEWD TO THE SRN PART OF
   THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.

   SOUTH OF THAT CORRIDOR FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TX NEWD TO AROUND
   ARDMORE OK...SFC TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING. IN SPITE
   OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
   WARM LAYER EXISTS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THE WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP
   PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION
   RATES COULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR
   RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35159899 35789673 35669623 35209613 34869617 34469625
               33399824 32559992 32380104 32720147 33380184 34110150
               34600057 35159899 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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