ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021349 
SPC MCD 021349 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 021349Z - 021745Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM ERN OK ENEWD ACROSS NRN AR. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FROM SE OK ENEWD INTO
NCNTRL AR. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES
PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION FROM
NORTH TX EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...NLY FLOW IS
PRESENT IN ERN OK AND NRN AR WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO DROP INTO THE
MID 20S F THIS MORNING. AS THE MORE INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW MOVE FROM
AREAS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF TULSA OK ENEWD TO FAYETTEVILLE
AR...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM MCALESTER OK ENEWD ACROSS THE FORT SMITH
AR AREA...TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB EVIDENT ON 12Z
LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES SWD LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION RATES OF
0.10 TO 0.20 OF INCH WILL BE LIKELY.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36089126 35539142 35099264 34379574 34429645 34889685
            35829650 36549214 36089126 

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