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Mesoscale Discussion 57
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CST SUN FEB 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 022102Z - 030030Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE
   OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM THE NSSL
   PRECIPITATION IDENTIFICATION NEAR THE GROUND /PING/ PROJECT INDICATE
   A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SPREADING ENEWD ALONG THE
   OHIO RIVER. THIS IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT PRECEDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING
   THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD...SO WILL
   THE PRECIPITATION...WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.03 TO LOCALLY
   0.08 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

   SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 32F...OR ARE EXPECTED TO
   HAVE FALLEN BELOW 32F WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BENEATH AN
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT WAS SAMPLED BETWEEN H85 AND H7 FROM THE 18Z
   SPECIAL LZK RAOB -- WELL UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CORRIDOR OF
   MIXED PRECIP TO EXTEND ENEWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA. SLEET/FREEZING
   RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY S OF THE OHIO RIVER IN THE SHORT
   TERM...WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH /SNOW RATES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1
   INCH PER HOUR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS/. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES TO COOL FROM NW TO SE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
   COLD ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS -- EVEN S OF THE OHIO RIVER.

   ..COHEN.. 02/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38108655 38428598 38828511 38948442 38628441 38218495
               37748608 37798675 38108655 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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