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Mesoscale Discussion 58
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 PM CST SUN FEB 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...KY...SRN IND...SRN OH...WV...SWRN PA...WRN MD...FAR
   NRN VA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 030421Z - 030945Z

   SUMMARY...LARGE SHIELD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM
   KY/NRN TN NORTHEAST INTO WV...WRN MD...AND SWRN PA...WITH SOME
   INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE
   THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE MCD AREA WITH
   RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 06Z. A NARROW
   ZONE OF HEAVY ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN TN INTO SRN KY.

   DISCUSSION...A LARGE SHIELD OF WINTER PRECIP IS ONGOING AS OF 0400Z
   ACROSS MUCH OF KY AND NRN TN...AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE
   MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
   THIS WAVE...WITH 1 INCH PW VALUES NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS BNA ON THE
   00Z RAOB. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THIS
   MOISTURE OVER THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD DOME...GENERATING A LARGE
   AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. 

   WHILE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE SFC
   FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SWD THIS EVENING AND WILL
   CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM NRN TN
   INTO SRN KY...WITH ICING RATES AOA 0.05 IN/HR POSSIBLE. GRADUAL
   DEEPENING OF THE COLD DOME ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE MCD AREA WILL
   RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY SNOW...WITH THE SNOW/FZRA LINE
   EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SWD WITH TIME. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THE LLJ INCREASING TO 70-80 KTS AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL
   SERVE TO INCREASE PRECIP RATES FROM ERN KY INTO SRN OH...NRN
   WV...AND SWRN PA LATE TONIGHT...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

   ..DEAN.. 02/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36248748 36508778 37068756 37588725 38058679 38678546
               39068379 39358233 39858074 40387871 40277743 39417710
               38737849 38168130 37308307 36678405 36278521 36108661
               36248748 

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