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Mesoscale Discussion 59
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 AM CST MON FEB 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WV...PA...FAR WRN MD...NJ...SE NY...SW CT

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 030944Z - 031345Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE FROM NRN WV ENEWD ACROSS
   SCNTRL PA EARLY THIS MORNING...DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS NRN NJ AND THE
   NEW YORK CITY AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
   PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN KY AND SRN
   WV...A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED BUT POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW MAY
   DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. A
   LARGE EXPANSE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST TO THE
   NORTH OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
   NORTHEAST FROM ERN TN INTO NRN VA. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO CREATE
   STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR. HEAVY SNOWFALL WAS
   OCCURRING FROM NRN WV ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL PA WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE
   JUST BELOW FREEZING. FURTHER TO THE EAST...SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE
   FREEZING IN SE PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
   BELOW FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO CAUSE WET-BULBING ALLOWING FOR A
   CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
   LIKELY REACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN KY AND WV...SFC TEMPS AT LOWER
   ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
   PRECIPITATION AS A RAIN SNOW MIX BUT WET-BULBING MAY ALSO RESULT IN
   A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   JKL...

   LAT...LON   39507884 38218074 37768139 37458186 37298227 37268276
               37578295 37828296 38528253 39448136 40317978 40957801
               41497478 41517293 41127256 40747281 40467461 40027729
               39507884 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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