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Mesoscale Discussion 61
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CENTRAL OK...S CENTRAL TO NE KS...

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 040934Z - 041430Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM NW OK
   ACROSS S CENTRAL KS AND SPREAD INTO NE KS...WITH RATES APPROACHING 1
   INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS BY 12Z.

   DISCUSSION...PW IS INCREASING IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/E TX INTO
   OK...ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ.  THIS MOISTURE INCREASE
   IS REFLECTED IN A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING FROM
   CSM-END.  MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY ZONE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT/DCVA IS
   PROGRESSING NEWD FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD WRN OK IN ADVANCE
   OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND
   LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN/NRN OK THROUGH THE
   MORNING.  DEEP SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL PROFILES UP TO 700 MB...AND
   RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL FAVOR SNOW AS THE MAIN
   PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MD AREA...WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES TO NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR BY 12Z. 
   FARTHER S-SE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 32 F AND A RESIDUAL WARM
   NOSE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL FAVOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR A
   COUPLE OF HOURS FROM SW INTO CENTRAL OK...PRIOR TO A CHANGEOVER TO
   SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS LATER THIS MORNING /AND PRIOR TO THE
   ARRIVAL OF THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT/.

   FARTHER N/NE...INITIAL SNOW BANDS ARE DEVELOPING FROM S CENTRAL INTO
   NE KS ALONG THE ZONE OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.  PRECIPITATION RATES
   SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NWD
   MOISTURE INFLUX FROM OK INTO KS.  ALSO...THESE BANDS WILL MOVE ONLY
   SLOWLY TO THE N AND SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

   ..THOMPSON.. 02/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   35989718 35789769 35329876 35369912 35769930 36329933
               37099962 37439967 37989934 38949772 39399655 39139577
               38519545 37839562 36969679 35989718 

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