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Mesoscale Discussion 71
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...ERN WV...WRN VA...NRN MD...NRN DE

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 050245Z - 050845Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO
   THE NRN DELMARVA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY
   EXCEED 0.05 IN/HR.  SLEET WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
   PA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...MATURING WARM CONVEYOR WITH AN EXPANSIVE ZONE OF
   PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY AND WILL SOON
   SPREAD ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN PA/WV INTO WRN VA/MD AREA. 
   ADDITIONALLY...WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE DELMARVA APPEARS TO BE
   PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RASH OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  WEDGE OF COOL AIR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS
   SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AT 02Z AND IS LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF
   1KM DEEP.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHALLOW WITH TIME BUT SHOULD NOT WARM
   ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY PLACES PRIOR TO 06Z.

   FARTHER NORTH...INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF
   SLEET...OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW...ACROSS SRN PA.  WITH TIME MUCH
   WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 2KM WILL SPREAD ATOP COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
   RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT MELTING FOR A SWITCH TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER
   06Z.  PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.10 INCH PER HOUR
   IN PLACES AS WARM ADVECTION CREATES A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
   SIGNIFICANT ICING.  WBZ LEVELS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE I-95
   CORRIDOR FROM DC THROUGH BWI TO PHL.  WHILE WARMING WILL EVENTUALLY
   DRIVE SFC TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
   AFTER 10Z.

   ..DARROW.. 02/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39568052 40108003 40447777 40237585 39787545 39337608
               38457841 37477946 37048026 37328077 37928041 38857973
               39328004 39568052 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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