MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND NERN PA / SRN AND CNTRL NY / WRN CT / WRN
   MA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 050557Z - 051100Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
   ARE PROBABLE INITIALLY OVER NRN PA AND WILL DEVELOP ENEWD TO THE
   HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 11Z.  MIXED P-TYPE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
   AND SLEET IS FORECAST OVER E-CNTRL PA ENEWD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
   RIVER VALLEY.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AROUND 06Z SHOWS A BROAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
   FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND A
   SEPARATE BUT MERGING PRECIPITATION ENVELOPE DEVELOPING E OF THE
   ALLEGHENY FRONT FROM S-CNTRL PA INTO NRN VA.  A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE
   AT H8 SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/05 IAD RAOB WILL SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SLEET
   ALONG THE SRN TIER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA /CNTRL PA NEWD INTO WRN
   CT/ ONCE THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED IN THE H85-H7 LAYER /REFERENCE
   00Z/05 OKX RAOB/.  STRONG ASCENT OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
   WARM CONVEYER WILL AUGMENT THE PRODUCTION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
   /1-2 INCHES PER HOUR/ AS PW INCREASES INTO THE 0.6 TO 0.75 INCH
   RANGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN PA ENEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL NY
   MAINTAIN A SUBFREEZING COLUMN THROUGH 11Z...WHEREAS AREAS FARTHER S
   AND CLOSER TO THE COAST SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIXED P-TYPE.

   ..SMITH.. 02/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40437760 41097488 41087334 41267291 42017258 42697269
               43057353 42487784 41847869 41137875 40757833 40437760