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Mesoscale Discussion 74
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST WED FEB 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 050823Z - 051330Z

   SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH THE
   MORNING...WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED TO
   OVERSPREAD MA/SRN VT/SRN NH FROM 10-12Z.  PRECIPITATION WILL START
   AS SNOW OVER CT/RI/SE MA...BUT A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS EXPECTED
   INLAND AS FAR AS HARTFORD TO NEAR OR JUST S OF BOS BY 15Z...WITH
   FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST.

   DISCUSSION...A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ENEWD FROM
   PA/SRN NY TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.  RAPID SATURATION OF THE COLUMN IS
   EXPECTED BY 09-12Z ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND CYCLOGENESIS IS
   ANTICIPATED JUST S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE 00Z SOUNDING
   FROM OKX ALREADY REVEALED A WARM LAYER NEAR 0 C FROM 800-700
   MB...AND ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
   OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANGEOVER FROM INITIALLY
   SNOW TO SLEET ACROSS CT/RI/SE NEW ENGLAND...AND LIKELY FREEZING
   RAIN/RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE GREATEST SURFACE
   WARMING IS EXPECTED AS SOME ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT DEVELOPS. 
   FARTHER N...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUB-FREEZING /ROUGHLY TO THE N OF A
   HARTFORD-BOSTON LINE/ WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
   TYPE.  STRONG ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
   FRONTOGENESIS...SUCH THAT HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES WILL REACH 1-2
   INCHES PER HOUR FROM W-E IN THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME...AND CONTINUING
   THROUGH 15Z.

   ..THOMPSON.. 02/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41966995 41617041 41377182 41387236 41607264 41987272
               42537270 42907255 43087230 43197189 43287089 43217054
               41966995 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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