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Mesoscale Discussion 77
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1035 AM CST WED FEB 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...MUCH OF VT/NH...NWRN MA AND WRN ME

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 051635Z - 052130Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP OVER WRN...CENTRAL INTO ERN/NRN NY THROUGH 18Z WITHIN W-E
   ORIENTED BANDS.  GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM...THESE BANDS
   WILL PERSIST AND ADVANCE EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.  HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES THAT DEVELOP YET THIS MORNING
   OVER WRN NY MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 18-19Z WEST OF A LINE FROM
   KSYR-KELM AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBGM AS A DRY SLOT ADVANCES INTO THIS
   REGION.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH THE MID
   MORNING SHOWED W-E BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA 30-40
   MILES WIDE FROM FAR WRN TO EAST CENTRAL NY...AND GENERALLY CENTERED
   ON A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RENSSELAER COUNTIES.  THESE BANDS
   APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED FAIRLY WELL WITH A W-E ZONE OF 850 MB
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.  MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL BANDS WERE DEVELOPING
   FARTHER N OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO TO NRN NY AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT 700 MB. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SRN QUEBEC 200+ 250 MB JET
   JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THIS REGION...AND AS ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF
   A STRENGTHENING 500 MB JET ADVANCES EWD FROM NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
   GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NERN STATES
   TODAY...COOLING 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE
   3-6 KM LAYER PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
   WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS...WITH LIGHTNING RECENTLY DETECTED NEAR KBUF. 
   STRONG UVVS EXPECTED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ATOP A DEEP
   ISOTHERMAL LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..PETERS.. 02/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42907818 43147666 43297586 43527577 43807587 44407557
               44627516 44847411 44887321 44797201 44777190 44987089
               44897045 44527011 44127019 43557066 43127102 42807146
               42627248 42237423 42067546 42087687 42027744 42027806
               42207837 42427849 42907818 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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